Your Mortgage Rate Rose 25 Basis Points. Your Savings Rose 5.

nz house price forecast

On 2 September 2026, the Reserve Bank lifted the official cash rate 25 basis points to 2.75%. Within a day, ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Westpac and Kiwibank had passed the full 25 points onto floating mortgage rates. Savers were offered as little as 5 basis points, and in BNZ’s case, nothing at all. If you’re carrying a mortgage on a rental, that’s a real cost increase you absorbed in under 24 hours — while the bank kept the gap for itself. Here’s what happened last week, and what it means for your rental.


Your Mortgage Moved in a Day. Your Savings Didn’t.

The repricing after the Reserve Bank’s 2 September decision was fast and one-sided, according to interest.co.nz’s tracking of the rate changes.

  • ANZ and ASB both took floating home loan rates to 6.29%.
  • BNZ moved to 6.34%, Westpac to 6.39% — each passing on the full 25 basis points.
  • Kiwibank lifted its base variable rate by the same full amount.
  • On the savings side: ANZ’s Online Call account rose just 5 basis points to 0.50%. Kiwibank added 15 basis points to savings accounts. BNZ announced no savings change at all.

Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Karen Silk confirmed the gap was deliberate on the banks’ part, not a fluke. She told interest.co.nz that deposit rates moved “five and 10 basis points, not 25 basis points” against a full 25-point mortgage move, and pointed to low competition for deposits and saver inertia as part of the reason.

The Reserve Bank’s own September Monetary Policy Statement backs this up in writing: the gap between wholesale funding costs and what banks pay depositors has narrowed by around 75 basis points since its October 2025 peak, which means banks are funding themselves more cheaply than a year ago even as they lift what borrowers pay.

What this means for landlords: if your mortgage is floating or coming off a short fixed term, budget for the full 25-point rise now rather than waiting to see if it’s absorbed elsewhere — the banks have already shown it isn’t. If you’re deciding whether to leave cash in a term deposit while you plan your next purchase or renovation, run the real after-tax, after-inflation numbers through our ROI calculator before assuming a “safe” savings account is actually keeping pace.


House Prices Won’t Get Back to 2021 Levels Until Late 2029, ASB Says

A new house price outlook from ASB, released this week, forecasts flat national prices for the rest of this year, a rise of around 3.5% in 2027, and gains after that broadly tracking income growth of about 5% a year.

  • National prices are currently about 15% below their 2021 peak in nominal terms, or nearly 30% down once inflation is accounted for.
  • ASB doesn’t expect nationwide prices to reach late-2021 levels again until late 2029 — roughly eight years after the top.
  • REINZ’s July report puts the national median sale price at $760,000, down 0.7% on a year earlier, with homes taking a median 50 days to sell.
  • Auckland’s median sale price fell 3.6% to $940,000 over the same period.

ASB senior economist Mark Smith told RNZ the recovery would be “more measured, more income-led and ultimately more sustainable” than the near-sixfold rise New Zealand prices saw in the 30 years to 2020. He named three structural reasons: mortgage rates are unlikely to keep falling the way they did for three decades, population growth has slowed, and there’s simply more housing choice now, particularly townhouses and apartments.

Affordability data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, cross-referenced against these figures, shows Auckland has actually improved the most of any major centre: a median Auckland home cost 11.95 years of household income at the 2022 peak and 8.48 years by the end of 2025 — better than the 9.57 years it took before the pandemic boom began. If your rental sits in a suburb like Westmere or elsewhere across the region, this is the broader backdrop your property’s value is moving against.

What this means for landlords: the days of counting on fast capital gains to cover a badly run rental are over, at least for the next few years. ASB’s own report calls the outlook “incredibly uncertain,” but the direction is consistent — cash flow, tenant quality and compliance now matter more to your actual return than hoping the market bails out mistakes.


What This Means If You Self-Manage

Neither of this week’s stories is a compliance breach, but both land on your bottom line the same way one would. A floating mortgage rate that moves the full 25 points overnight is not something you can appeal or negotiate around after the fact — you either priced it into your numbers in advance, or you’re finding the money now. And a housing market that won’t recover to 2021 levels until 2029 means the properties that perform are the ones being run properly today: rent priced correctly, maintenance handled before it becomes a Tribunal case, and Healthy Homes compliance sorted rather than assumed.

Most self-managing landlords don’t have the time to track OCR decisions, bank repricing, REINZ data and their own compliance obligations in the same week. And if you’d rather not manage it yourself, that’s exactly what Keyvi is here for.


Book a Free Appraisal

Keyvi manages Auckland rentals with full compliance, transparent reporting, and hands-on communication — so you always know where your property stands.

Book your free appraisal at keyvi.co.nz/free-appraisal

Or call Varun directly on +64 204 030 0600.


Sources & Further Reading

Join The Discussion